When the UFC’s hype engine fails to deliver any real, palpable anticipation for a fight — as in the case of Saturday’s Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin rematch, which is fine but far from the Epic Super Rematch of Mega Titans some clever editing and music are presenting it as — you can make up your own narrative.

In this instance, UFC 106’s four light heavyweights might potentially be participating in a four-man tournament for a chance at the title without knowing it. In addition to Ortiz-Griffin, a debuting Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will face Luis Cane; the respective winners would have time to meet before May 1’s Lyoto Machida-Mauricio Rua rematch. It may be all that you need to sit a little closer to the television.

Fewer excuses need to be made for the undercard, a talent-rich program with some genuinely compelling fights and fighters. Any program forced to restrict Caol Uno to preliminary status has things going for it.

What: UFC 106: Ortiz versus Griffin, an 11-bout card from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Nov. 21, 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view, with a live undercard special on Spike at 9 p.m. ET

Why you should care: Because Ortiz, while not for all tastes, usually brings a contagious energy into his bouts; because we’ll get to see what kind of answers Anthony Johnson has for someone like Josh Koscheck, who can take his legs out from under him; because Amir Sadollah and Phil Baroni looks deceptively like a boy versus man match-up, which might amuse your friends; and because it’s a pleasure to watch any Nogueira compete.

Fight of the night: Karo Parisyan versus the UFC. (Previously Parisyan versus Dustin Hazelett.) Parisyan has grappled more with anxiety issues than opponents in recent months; he pulled out of the event Thursday for suspect reasons. Now Dana White swears he’s done.

Sleeper fight of the night: Paulo Thiago versus Jacob Volkmann, two finishing submission artists who aren’t good enough wrestlers to smother the other.

Hype quote of the show: “I’ve sparred with Anthony before. He was afraid to get punched and he got really aggressive and came back swinging whenever I got in his face and put any pressure on him. A win will put me one step closer to my goal of becoming the UFC welterweight champion. When I whip this kid’s ass, I’m calling out Georges St. Pierre next.” — Koscheck, objectively calculating his chances, to UFC.com.
 

Five questions: UFC 106

Q: Is Tito Ortiz ready for an encore?

A: Ortiz’s recent performances displayed a fighter far removed from the kind of dominating, aggressive cage-wrestling he used to great success early on; he blamed back issues, corrected by a new and less invasive surgery. But even if Ortiz reverts to old form, he’ll be a 2002 fighter in 2009: up against athletes who can stuff his takedown, shut him down on the ground and pester him standing. Aggressive wrestlers will always have a chance — even fresh off the college mat — but it’s not as good a guarantee as it used to be.

Q: Can Forrest Griffin handle another loss?

A: Batterings against Rashad Evans and Anderson Silva puts Griffin on track to suffer a third consecutive defeat. While his popularity and “Ultimate Fighter 1″ finale cred probably guarantee him permanent employment in the UFC, he does not strike as the type who will take a run of misfortune with grace. Whether that statistic influences his performance against Ortiz, forcing him to fight more conservatively, is one for the wrap up.

Q: Can Phil Baroni pull it together?

A: Despite being difficult to take down, heavy-handed and sporting the ring temperament of a rabies victim, Phi Baroni’s record reads as 13-11. Depending on which fights of his you’ve seen, he appears either tougher than you expect or weaker than advertised. Fighting a capable Amir Sadollah will help determine whether being “at home” in the UFC’s 170-pound division is going to make a difference — or whether Baroni and Frank Trigg are on course to give each other an exit interview.

Q: Can Karo Parisyan overcome himself?

A: Parisyan, probably the most macho-strapping fighter in the sport today, blames anxiety issues for flat performances. His last, versus Dong Hyun Kim, was erased when he was pinned for painkiller use. Having a mind congested with these issues when Dustin Hazelett is looking to make your ankle touch your ear is not proper, which may be part of the reason he made an unexpected exit from the event on Thursday. Parisyan, only 27 despite his decade of experience, needed a strong performance to mute the negative voices — both in and out of his head. He won’t get that chance.

Q: Will Antonio Rogerio Nogueira welcome success?

A: Long a fixture of the Japanese circuit, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira has all the tools necessary to become a legitimate light heavyweight contender — which would place him directly in the sights of associate Lyoto Machida. MMA is not chess, and a punch to the face is not as subdued a move as taking a rook. Nogueira’s success could come with a heavy tax.

Red Ink: Ortiz/Griffin

There is likely to be a moment during the Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin bout on Saturday when both men struggle for position: Griffin pressed against the cage, resisting Ortiz’s chances on the ground, Ortiz testing his new back against someone paid to hurt him. There are consequences to how this plays out, but they amount to more than the superficial damage: In jockeying for control, both are really fighting to remain relevant.

Ortiz has not competed in over a year, maintained a nearly annual fight schedule prior to that, and may find that fans have pledged allegiances to more active fighters. In the span Ortiz took time off, fought Lyoto Machida and convalesced, Griffin has fought four top-10 ranked opponents. (And beat two of them.) Ortiz has not had a hand raised in a meaningful fight since he defeated Griffin in 2006. 

If Ortiz cannot beat Griffin, there will be doubts whether a good or bad back has much to do with his recent mediocrity. If Griffin cannot beat Ortiz, he might be doomed to a career as a sardonic special attraction, not a serious contender. This is a fight where the loser leaves feeling lost.

Might look like: Ortiz’s fight with Vitor Belfort, a wild back-and-forth that confuses judges who are already struggling with common sense.

Wild card: Absolutely Ortiz’s back: If he can continue taking effective shots for three rounds, Griffin will need a sewing kit for his forehead.

Who wins: Griffin has his best success when opponents want to take batting practice with him; it’s not a game Ortiz has to play if he doesn’t want to. Ortiz by decision.